Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-12 · 12:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Gamba Osaka win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.41 – 1.39 FC Tokyo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka win | 39.4% | 25.3% | +14.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| FC Tokyo win | 38.2% | 49.5% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 55.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 34.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 57.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 37.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gamba Osaka 41.4 / FC Tokyo 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.