Kyoto vs Kashiwa Reysol
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-11 · 12:00 CET
DLLWL
LLWWWThe score model made a Kyoto win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kyoto 1.31 – 1.19 Kashiwa Reysol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto win | 40.8% | 19.6% | +21.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 35.3% | 56.6% | -21.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 55.1% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 34.4% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 55.1% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 36.6% | -7.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kyoto 43 / Kashiwa Reysol 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.