Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
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DLWDDThe score model made a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 2.12 – 0.86 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe win | 67.4% | 58.9% | +8.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.3% | 24.2% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 15.3% | 16.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 48.0% | +9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 27.0% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 47.7% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vissel Kobe 42.5 / V-Varen Nagasaki 15.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.