Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 11:00 CET
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WLWWWThe score model made a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Okayama 0.80 – 1.28 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okayama win | 24.6% | 22.7% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.7% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 49.4% | 50.6% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.4% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Okayama 29.1 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.