Nagoya Grampus vs Machida
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 11:00 CET
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WWDLWThe score model made a Machida win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.11 – 1.45 Machida.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus win | 30.3% | 28.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 27.4% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Machida win | 46.5% | 43.7% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 51.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 30.8% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 56.1% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nagoya Grampus 42.4 / Machida 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.