Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-Pulse
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
LWWDL
DLWWWThe score model made a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.70 – 1.14 Shimizu S-Pulse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 51.7% | 51.7% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 26.0% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 26.9% | 22.4% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 54.2% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 34.0% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 56.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 37.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawasaki Frontale 44.2 / Shimizu S-Pulse 27.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.