Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
LLWWW
DWDWDThe score model made a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.56 – 1.22 Yokohama F. Marinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 46.4% | 55.3% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 24.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 31.4% | 20.3% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 54.6% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 33.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 54.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 36.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kashiwa Reysol 45.3 / Yokohama F. Marinos 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.