Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Reds
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 11:00 CET
LLLDW
WWLWLThe score model made a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 1.65 – 0.95 Urawa Reds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers win | 55.2% | 52.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 25.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Urawa Reds win | 23.1% | 22.6% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 54.2% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.5% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 56.1% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kashima Antlers 43 / Urawa Reds 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.