Chiba vs Gamba Osaka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 11:00 CET
LWDLD
DLLLLThe score model made a Gamba Osaka win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chiba 1.19 – 1.91 Gamba Osaka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiba win | 24.8% | 28.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.9% | 27.0% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Gamba Osaka win | 55.4% | 44.9% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 53.8% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.5% | 33.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 57.4% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 36.4% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chiba 14.5 / Gamba Osaka 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.