Cerezo Osaka vs Verdy
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
WDLDD
LDDLLThe score model made a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka 1.38 – 0.85 Verdy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka win | 50.7% | 56.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Verdy win | 24.7% | 18.9% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 49.1% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 27.8% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 50.0% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 32.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cerezo Osaka 41.6 / Verdy 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.