Torres vs Pianese
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-16 · 18:30 CET
DDDWL
DLWDDThe score model made a Torres win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torres 1.12 – 0.92 Pianese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torres win | 38.9% | 50.2% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 27.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Pianese win | 28.7% | 22.1% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 45.7% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 25.6% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 49.1% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 31.1% | -7.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torres 45.9 / Pianese 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torres vs Pianese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.