Renate vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-17 · 21:00 CET
LLDDL
LDLLLThe score model made a Renate win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Renate 1.65 – 0.93 Dolomiti Bellunesi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate win | 54.2% | 43.6% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 29.9% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi win | 20.8% | 26.6% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 43.6% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 24.0% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 49.2% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 29.8% | -2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Renate 47 / Dolomiti Bellunesi 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Renate vs Dolomiti Bellunesi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.