The season in numbers
Blindly backing under 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Renate produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 39.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Dolomiti Bellunesi – AlbinoLeffe2026-09-13 13:00Over 2.5 ✓48.6%vs 42.7%▲ +5.9%- Trento – Brescia2026-09-13 19:00Under 2.5 ✓69.8%vs 64.9%▲ +4.9%
- Lecco – Giana Erminio2026-09-13 13:00Under 2.5 ✓69.9%vs 67.1%▲ +2.8%
- Novara – Pergolettese2026-09-13 19:00Under 2.5 ✓63.8%vs 61.3%▲ +2.4%
- Lumezzane – Renate2026-09-13 16:00Home win38.2%vs 38.8%-0.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi– AlbinoLeffe | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 48.6% | 42.7% | ▲ +5.9% | 2.34 | |
| 2 |  Trento– Brescia | 2026-09-13 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 69.8% | 64.9% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.54 | |
| 3 |  Lecco– Giana Erminio | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 69.9% | 67.1% | ▲ +2.8% | 1.49 | |
| 4 |  Novara– Pergolettese | 2026-09-13 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 63.8% | 61.3% | ▲ +2.4% | 1.63 | |
| 5 |  Lumezzane– Renate | 2026-09-13 | 16:00 | Home win | 38.2% | 38.8% | -0.5% | 2.58 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Serie C - Group A schedule 10,000 times a day. Brescia win the 2026-2027 title in 68% of them, projecting ~72 points; Trento are next at 11%. At the other end, Folgore Caratese finish in the bottom three in 67% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brescia | 9 | 72 | 63–81 | 68% | 95% | — |
| 2 | Trento | 7 | 61 | 52–71 | 11% | 59% | <1% |
| 3 |  Cittadella | 9 | 60 | 50–70 | 7% | 50% | <1% |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 7 | 57 | 47–66 | 4% | 34% | 2% |
| 5 | Treviso | 4 | 54 | 45–64 | 2% | 22% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Pro Vercelli | 4 | 42 | 33–52 | <1% | <1% | 43% |
| 19 | Pergolettese | 1 | 42 | 33–51 | <1% | <1% | 44% |
| 20 | Folgore Caratese | 1 | 38 | 29–47 | — | <1% | 67% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 350 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/serie-c-group-a/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie C - Group A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/serie-c-group-a">Serie C - Group A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie C - Group A match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brescia | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | |
| 2 | Cittadella | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | |
| 4 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | |
| 5 | Trento | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Pergolettese | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | |
| 20 | Renate | 0 | 4.2 | -4.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+