Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Juventus U23 – Renate+13.6%
Away win · data 45% vs market 31%
Fastest starters
Brescia31%
5 of their 16 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Alcione Milano38%
5 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+26.1%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +26.1% at market prices across 90 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-8.8 ptsRenate produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Juventus U23 – Renate2026-10-19 18:30Away winModel 44.8%Implied 31.2%▲ +13.6%- Giana Erminio – Brescia2026-10-19 18:30Under 2.5Model 70.2%Implied 58.8%▲ +11.4%
- Ospitaletto – Pergolettese2026-10-18 15:30Under 2.5Model 65.4%Implied 57.8%▲ +7.6%
- Cittadella – Arzignano2026-10-19 18:30Under 1.5 HTModel 78.9%Implied 71.4%▲ +7.5%
- Pro Vercelli – Lecco2026-10-16 18:30Under 2.5Model 63.9%Implied 61.0%▲ +3.0%
- AlbinoLeffe – Novara2026-10-18 15:30BTTS: NoModel 52.3%Implied 51.5%▲ +0.8%
- Dolomiti Bellunesi – Trento2026-10-19 18:30Under 1.5 HTModel 76.9%Implied 76.3%▲ +0.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus U23– Renate | 2026-10-19 | 18:30 | Away win | 44.8% | 31.2% | ▲ +13.6% | 3.21 |
| 2 |  Giana Erminio– Brescia | 2026-10-19 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 70.2% | 58.8% | ▲ +11.4% | 1.70 |
| 3 |  Ospitaletto– Pergolettese | 2026-10-18 | 15:30 | Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 57.8% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.73 |
| 4 |  Cittadella– Arzignano | 2026-10-19 | 18:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 78.9% | 71.4% | ▲ +7.5% | 1.40 |
| 5 |  Pro Vercelli– Lecco | 2026-10-16 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 61.0% | ▲ +3.0% | 1.64 |
| 6 |  AlbinoLeffe– Novara | 2026-10-18 | 15:30 | BTTS: No | 52.3% | 51.5% | ▲ +0.8% | 1.94 |
| 7 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi– Trento | 2026-10-19 | 18:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 76.9% | 76.3% | ▲ +0.6% | 1.31 |
Add Serie C - Group A fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie C - Group A schedule 10,000 times a day. Brescia win the 2026-2027 title in 51% of them, projecting ~73 points; Cittadella are next at 32%. At the other end, Carpi finish in the bottom three in 72% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brescia | 19 | 73 | 64–81 | 51% | 96% | — |
| 2 | Cittadella | 24 | 71 | 62–79 | 32% | 90% | — |
| 3 | Trento | 17 | 64 | 56–73 | 9% | 68% | <1% |
| 4 | Ospitaletto | 18 | 62 | 53–71 | 5% | 53% | <1% |
| 5 | Arzignano | 17 | 58 | 49–67 | 2% | 28% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Folgore Caratese | 6 | 38 | 29–46 | — | <1% | 52% |
| 19 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 37 | 29–45 | — | — | 58% |
| 20 | Carpi | 6 | 34 | 26–43 | — | <1% | 72% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 290 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/serie-c-group-a/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie C - Group A live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/serie-c-group-a">Serie C - Group A stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie C - Group A match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +26.1%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out +26.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −0.9%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −0.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −3.5%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −3.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −12.2%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −12.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −18.3%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −18.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −20.6%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −20.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −38.5%
at market prices · 90 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie C - Group A, 2026-2027: across 90 matches the market's prices paid out −38.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 24 | 15.7 | +8.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Brescia | 19 | 18.1 | +0.9 | |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 18 | 12.6 | +5.4 | |
| 4 | Trento | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | |
| 5 | Arzignano | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Carpi | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 | |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 5 | 10.8 | -5.8 | |
| 20 | Renate | 4 | 12.8 | -8.8 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisCittadella24 ptsBrescia19 ptsOspitaletto18 ptsTrento17 ptsArzignano17 ptsDesenzano13 ptsTreviso13 ptsAlbinoLeffe12 pts
Alcione Milano12 pts
Lumezzane12 ptsPergolettese11 ptsDolomiti Bellunesi10 ptsLecco10 ptsNovara9 ptsPro Vercelli9 ptsJuventus U237 ptsFolgore Caratese6 ptsCarpi6 ptsGiana Erminio5 ptsRenate4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+