Serie C - Group A title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Italy · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Brescia (52%), Cittadella (26%), Trento (10%). 75 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia | 8 | 16 | 7263–80 | 52% | 59 from 30 (1.97/game) |
| Cittadella | 8 | 21 | 6859–77 | 26% | 54 from 30 (1.80/game) |
| Trento | 8 | 14 | 6355–72 | 10% | 61 from 30 (2.03/game) |
| Treviso | 8 | 13 | 6051–69 | 4% | 62 from 30 (2.07/game) |
| Ospitaletto | 8 | 15 | 6051–68 | 4% | 60 from 30 (2.00/game) |
| Arzignano | 8 | 14 | 5748–66 | 2% | 61 from 30 (2.03/game) |
Below 1%: AlbinoLeffe, Lecco, Alcione Milano, Lumezzane, Desenzano, Novara, Renate, Giana Erminio, Pergolettese, Dolomiti Bellunesi, Pro Vercelli, Folgore Caratese, Juventus U23, Carpi.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 301 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).