Serie C - Group A 2023-2024 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Mantova	38	80	68.2	+11.8Outperforming ++	3	+5.3	+6.5	0:5 vs Padova (+1.9)	0:1 vs Trento (-2.0)
2	Legnago Salus	38	56	45.1	+10.9Outperforming ++	17	+4.0	+7.0	1:0 vs L.R. Vicenza (+2.2)	1:2 vs Giana Erminio (-1.6)
3	Lumezzane	38	53	45.8	+7.2Outperforming ++	16	+4.5	+2.7	0:2 vs Virtus Verona (+2.1)	0:2 vs Trento (-1.6)
4	Giana Erminio	38	53	46.6	+6.4Outperforming ++	14	-2.6	+9.0	2:0 vs Padova (+2.1)	1:2 vs Pro Patria (-1.8)
5	Padova	38	77	71.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	1	+3.3	+2.2	0:1 vs Triestina (+1.6)	2:0 vs Giana Erminio (-1.9)
6	Atalanta U23	38	59	55.6	+3.4Outperforming	5	+3.0	+0.5	2:1 vs Triestina (+1.8)	0:2 vs Pergolettese (-1.8)
7	Pro Vercelli	38	53	50.7	+2.3Outperforming	9	+6.9	-4.7	1:0 vs L.R. Vicenza (+2.2)	0:3 vs Giana Erminio (-1.7)
8	Trento	38	51	49.3	+1.7On expectation	11	-2.2	+3.9	0:1 vs Mantova (+2.3)	0:2 vs Fiorenzuola (-1.7)
9	L.R. Vicenza	38	71	69.4	+1.6On expectation	2	+2.8	-1.2	1:2 vs Mantova (+1.7)	1:2 vs Renate (-2.0)
10	Pro Patria	38	46	46.0	+0.0On expectation	15	-7.6	+7.7	1:2 vs Triestina (+2.3)	1:2 vs Giana Erminio (-1.8)
11	Triestina	38	64	64.1	-0.1On expectation	4	-8.7	+8.6	1:2 vs AlbinoLeffe (+1.7)	0:1 vs Virtus Verona (-2.1)
12	Fiorenzuola	38	38	39.9	-1.9On expectation	19	+0.6	-2.5	1:2 vs AlbinoLeffe (+2.2)	1:2 vs Giana Erminio (-1.4)
13	AlbinoLeffe	38	45	47.2	-2.2Underperforming	13	-4.7	+2.5	2:3 vs Triestina (+2.3)	1:2 vs Fiorenzuola (-1.9)
14	Pergolettese	38	45	48.9	-3.9Underperforming	12	-3.6	-0.2	0:2 vs Atalanta U23 (+2.1)	0:1 vs Alessandria (-1.8)
15	Virtus Verona	38	47	51.3	-4.3Underperforming	7	-6.7	+2.3	0:1 vs Triestina (+2.4)	0:2 vs Pro Sesto (-1.8)
16	Pro Sesto	38	35	40.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	18	-5.1	-0.8	0:2 vs Virtus Verona (+2.1)	1:2 vs Alessandria (-1.4)
17	Renate	38	45	50.9	-5.9Underperforming −−	8	-13.0	+7.0	1:2 vs L.R. Vicenza (+2.3)	0:2 vs Alessandria (-2.0)
18	Novara	38	43	49.9	-6.9Underperforming −−	10	-4.1	-2.8	0:1 vs Giana Erminio (+1.8)	1:2 vs Pro Patria (-1.8)
19	Arzignano	38	44	51.6	-7.6Underperforming −−	6	-4.1	-3.5	0:1 vs Novara (+1.9)	0:1 vs Pro Patria (-1.7)
20	Alessandria	38	23	37.4	-14.3Underperforming −−	20	-11.4	-3.0	0:2 vs Renate (+2.2)	0:1 vs Fiorenzuola (-1.5)