Pro Vercelli vs Alcione Milano
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-17 · 18:30 CET
LDWLL
LDDDWThe score model made an Alcione Milano win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pro Vercelli 0.81 – 1.02 Alcione Milano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Vercelli win | 28.1% | 35.7% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.9% | 30.7% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Alcione Milano win | 39.0% | 33.7% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.8% | 40.9% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.4% | 21.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 35.8% | 48.2% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 15.7% | 28.7% | -13.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pro Vercelli 47 / Alcione Milano 38.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pro Vercelli vs Alcione Milano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.