Trento vs Brescia
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
WDDWW
WDDWLThe score model made a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Trento 0.86 – 1.06 Brescia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trento win | 28.6% | 25.9% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 30.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Brescia win | 39.2% | 43.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.1% | 39.4% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.8% | 21.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 38.0% | 46.1% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 27.4% | -7.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Trento 46.4 / Brescia 26.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Trento vs Brescia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.