Trento vs Brescia
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Trento 0.86 – 1.06 Brescia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trento win | 28.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 32.1% | — | — |
| Brescia win | 39.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.9% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 38.1% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Trento 47 / Brescia 26.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.