Novara vs Pergolettese
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
DLWLD
DDDWWThe score model made a Novara win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novara 1.30 – 0.85 Pergolettese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 46.6% | 45.2% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 29.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Pergolettese win | 24.1% | 25.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.3% | 41.5% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 22.5% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 47.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 29.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novara 46.4 / Pergolettese 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Novara vs Pergolettese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.