Lumezzane vs Renate
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 18:00 CET
WLWDL
LLDDLThe score model made a Lumezzane win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lumezzane 1.21 – 1.11 Renate.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane win | 38.2% | 36.2% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 29.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Renate win | 32.9% | 34.0% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 45.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 25.4% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 51.8% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 31.5% | -5.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lumezzane 43.7 / Renate 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lumezzane vs Renate in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.