Lecco vs Giana Erminio
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-13 · 15:00 CET
DLDDW
DDDDWThe score model made a Lecco win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecco 1.07 – 0.84 Giana Erminio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco win | 40.1% | 46.9% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 29.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Giana Erminio win | 27.8% | 23.4% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.1% | 38.6% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.8% | 19.9% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.8% | 43.7% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.8% | 27.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecco 40.6 / Giana Erminio 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lecco vs Giana Erminio in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.