Sudtirol vs Modena
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
DWDWD
LDWWLThe score model made a Sudtirol win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.09 – 1.04 Modena.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 35.1% | 31.0% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 31.4% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Modena win | 32.5% | 37.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.9% | 44.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 24.7% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 51.5% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 30.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sudtirol 48.8 / Modena 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sudtirol vs Modena in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.