Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +12.1% at market prices across 50 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Carrarese produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 37.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Padova – Carrarese2026-10-11 15:15Under 2.5Model 63.7%Implied 52.1%▲ +11.7%- Sudtirol – Ascoli2026-10-10 13:00Under 2.5Model 66.3%Implied 55.2%▲ +11.0%
- Catanzaro – Mantova2026-10-11 13:00Home winModel 53.7%Implied 43.3%▲ +10.4%
- Entella – Juve Stabia2026-10-10 13:00Under 2.5Model 65.5%Implied 58.1%▲ +7.4%
- Avellino – Sampdoria2026-10-09 18:30Under 2.5Model 60.9%Implied 55.2%▲ +5.6%
- Empoli – Palermo2026-10-10 13:00Under 2.5Model 53.9%Implied 48.8%▲ +5.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Padova– Carrarese | 2026-10-11 | 15:15 | Under 2.5 | 63.7% | 52.1% | ▲ +11.7% | 1.92 |
| 2 |  Sudtirol– Ascoli | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 66.3% | 55.2% | ▲ +11.0% | 1.81 |
| 3 |  Catanzaro– Mantova | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Home win | 53.7% | 43.3% | ▲ +10.4% | 2.31 |
| 4 |  Entella– Juve Stabia | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 58.1% | ▲ +7.4% | 1.72 |
| 5 |  Avellino– Sampdoria | 2026-10-09 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 55.2% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.81 |
| 6 |  Empoli– Palermo | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 48.8% | ▲ +5.1% | 2.05 |
Add Serie B fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie B schedule 10,000 times a day. Palermo win the 2026-2027 title in 56% of them, projecting ~70 points; Pisa are next at 10%. At the other end, Arezzo finish in the bottom three in 75% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 13 | 70 | 60–79 | 56% | 90% | <1% |
| 2 | Pisa | 7 | 60 | 51–69 | 10% | 48% | <1% |
| 3 |  Modena | 10 | 60 | 50–69 | 9% | 47% | <1% |
| 4 | Ascoli | 10 | 58 | 49–67 | 6% | 37% | <1% |
| 5 | Cremonese | 5 | 57 | 47–66 | 4% | 31% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | L.R. Vicenza | 5 | 45 | 35–54 | <1% | 2% | 32% |
| 19 | Carrarese | 1 | 41 | 32–51 | <1% | <1% | 48% |
| 20 | Arezzo | 6 | 37 | 28–46 | — | <1% | 75% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 330 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie B match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | |
| 3 | Mantova | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 | Modena | 10 | 8.3 | +1.8 | |
| 5 | Ascoli | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Sampdoria | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | |
| 20 | Carrarese | 1 | 5.8 | -4.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+