The season in numbers
The outlier
+11.9uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.5 ptsBenevento produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Padova – Ascoli2026-09-12 13:00Under 2.569.2%vs 56.5%▲ +12.7%- Catanzaro – Carrarese2026-09-12 15:15Over 2.5 ✓55.8%vs 48.5%▲ +7.2%
- Cesena – Cremonese2026-09-12 17:30Over 1.5 HT ✓41.1%vs 35.8%▲ +5.2%
- Sudtirol – Modena2026-09-12 13:00Home win ✓35.2%vs 31.5%▲ +3.6%
- Avellino – Palermo2026-09-13 15:15Home win27.4%vs 26.1%▲ +1.3%
- Mantova – Sampdoria2026-09-13 15:15Under 1.5 HT74.0%vs 75.2%-1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Padova– Ascoli | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 69.2% | 56.5% | ▲ +12.7% | 1.77 | |
| 2 |  Catanzaro– Carrarese | 2026-09-12 | 15:15 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 55.8% | 48.5% | ▲ +7.2% | 2.06 | |
| 3 |  Cesena– Cremonese | 2026-09-12 | 17:30 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 41.1% | 35.8% | ▲ +5.2% | 2.79 | |
| 4 |  Sudtirol– Modena | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Home win ✓ | 35.2% | 31.5% | ▲ +3.6% | 3.17 | |
| 5 |  Avellino– Palermo | 2026-09-13 | 15:15 | Home win | 27.4% | 26.1% | ▲ +1.3% | 3.83 | |
| 6 |  Mantova– Sampdoria | 2026-09-13 | 15:15 | Under 1.5 HT | 74.0% | 75.2% | -1.2% | 1.33 |
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Serie B match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +11.9u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: +11.9 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +4.0u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: +4.0 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -0.3u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: -0.3 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -5.0u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: -5.0 units over 30 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -7.0u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: -7.0 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -7.5u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: -7.5 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -10.6u
30 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Serie B match in 2026-2027: -10.6 units over 30 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | Sudtirol | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | |
| 4 | Ascoli | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | |
| 5 | Pisa | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Carrarese | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+