Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctBiggest divergence
Ascoli – Sampdoria+11.1%
Home win · data 57% vs market 46%
Fastest starters
Avellino33%
4 of their 12 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Sudtirol60%
6 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+18.5%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +18.5% at market prices across 80 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.3 ptsSampdoria produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
28%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ascoli – Sampdoria2026-10-27 19:00Home winModel 57.0%Implied 45.9%▲ +11.1%- Padova – Sudtirol2026-10-27 19:00Under 2.5Model 65.3%Implied 58.8%▲ +6.5%
- Entella – Avellino2026-10-27 19:00Away winModel 30.4%Implied 27.3%▲ +3.1%
- Modena – Mantova2026-10-31 14:00Away winModel 23.7%Implied 21.6%▲ +2.1%
- Sampdoria – Entella2026-10-31 18:30DrawModel 32.9%Implied 31.3%▲ +1.6%
- Cesena – Empoli2026-10-27 19:00Under 2.5Model 53.3%Implied 51.8%▲ +1.5%
- Empoli – Juve Stabia2026-11-01 14:00DrawModel 31.8%Implied 30.8%▲ +1.0%
- Pisa – Palermo2026-10-28 18:00Under 1.5 HTModel 68.2%Implied 67.6%▲ +0.6%
- Mantova – Cremonese2026-10-27 19:00Over 1.5 HTModel 35.8%Implied 35.6%▲ +0.2%
- Catanzaro – Padova2026-10-31 16:15Home winModel 48.5%Implied 48.8%-0.3%
- Sudtirol – Cesena2026-10-31 14:00Home winModel 44.9%Implied 46.1%-1.2%
- Avellino – Pisa2026-11-01 14:00Away winModel 41.9%Implied 43.7%-1.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ascoli– Sampdoria | 2026-10-27 | 19:00 | Home win | 57.0% | 45.9% | ▲ +11.1% | 2.18 |
| 2 |  Padova– Sudtirol | 2026-10-27 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 65.3% | 58.8% | ▲ +6.5% | 1.70 |
| 3 |  Entella– Avellino | 2026-10-27 | 19:00 | Away win | 30.4% | 27.3% | ▲ +3.1% | 3.66 |
| 4 |  Modena– Mantova | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Away win | 23.7% | 21.6% | ▲ +2.1% | 4.64 |
| 5 | Sampdoria–Entella | 2026-10-31 | 18:30 | Draw | 32.9% | 31.3% | ▲ +1.6% | 3.20 |
| 6 |  Cesena– Empoli | 2026-10-27 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 51.8% | ▲ +1.5% | 1.93 |
| 7 | Empoli– Juve Stabia | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | Draw | 31.8% | 30.8% | ▲ +1.0% | 3.25 |
| 8 |  Pisa– Palermo | 2026-10-28 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.2% | 67.6% | ▲ +0.6% | 1.48 |
| 9 | Mantova– Cremonese | 2026-10-27 | 19:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 35.8% | 35.6% | ▲ +0.2% | 2.81 |
| 10 |  Catanzaro–Padova | 2026-10-31 | 16:15 | Home win | 48.5% | 48.8% | -0.3% | 2.05 |
| 11 | Sudtirol–Cesena | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Home win | 44.9% | 46.1% | -1.2% | 2.17 |
| 12 | Avellino–Pisa | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | Away win | 41.9% | 43.7% | -1.8% | 2.29 |
Add Serie B fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Serie B schedule 10,000 times a day. Palermo win the 2026-2027 title in 66% of them, projecting ~74 points; Ascoli are next at 11%. At the other end, Arezzo finish in the bottom three in 70% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Palermo's title chance up 6 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 22 | 74 | 66–83 | ▲66% | 96% | — |
| 2 | Ascoli | 15 | 65 | 56–73 | 11% | 67% | <1% |
| 3 | Pisa | 14 | 65 | 56–73 | ▼11% | 68% | <1% |
| 4 | Modena | 16 | 62 | 53–70 | 5% | 49% | <1% |
| 5 | Benevento | 14 | 61 | 52–70 | 5% | 47% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Empoli | 7 | 43 | 34–52 | <1% | <1% | 34% |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 5 | 39 | 30–48 | — | <1% | 57% |
| 20 | Arezzo | 10 | 37 | 29–45 | — | <1% | 70% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 300 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/serie-b/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Serie B live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/serie-b">Serie B stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Serie B match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +18.5%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Away wins in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +18.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +3.0%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +3.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −0.8%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −0.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −11.7%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Draws in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −11.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −18.6%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −18.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −24.5%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −24.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −24.7%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Home wins in Serie B, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −24.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 22 | 15.0 | +7.0 | |
| 2 | Mantova | 17 | 11.0 | +6.0 | |
| 3 | Modena | 16 | 13.9 | +2.1 | |
| 4 | Ascoli | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 | |
| 5 | Benevento | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Cremonese | 6 | 12.1 | -6.1 | |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 5 | 11.3 | -6.3 | |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 4 | 10.1 | -6.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+