Serie B title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Italy · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Palermo (56%), Pisa (10%), Modena (9%). 72 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 5 | 13 | 7060–79 | 56% | 59 from 33 (1.79/game) |
| Pisa | 5 | 7 | 6051–69 | 10% | 65 from 33 (1.97/game) |
| Modena | 5 | 10 | 6050–69 | 9% | 62 from 33 (1.88/game) |
| Ascoli | 5 | 10 | 5849–67 | 6% | 62 from 33 (1.88/game) |
| Cremonese | 5 | 5 | 5747–66 | 4% | 67 from 33 (2.03/game) |
| Verona | 5 | 7 | 5646–65 | 4% | 65 from 33 (1.97/game) |
| Catanzaro | 5 | 3 | 5546–65 | 3% | 69 from 33 (2.09/game) |
| Mantova | 5 | 11 | 5545–64 | 3% | 61 from 33 (1.85/game) |
| Sudtirol | 5 | 11 | 5546–64 | 3% | 61 from 33 (1.85/game) |
| Benevento | 5 | 7 | 5343–62 | 1% | 65 from 33 (1.97/game) |
Below 1%: Juve Stabia, Padova, Cesena, Empoli, Avellino, Entella, Sampdoria, L.R. Vicenza, Carrarese, Arezzo.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 330 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).