Catanzaro vs Carrarese
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-12 · 17:15 CET
LWLLD
LLLWWThe score model made a Catanzaro win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.86 – 1.05 Carrarese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro win | 55.4% | 51.0% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Carrarese win | 19.9% | 21.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 51.2% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 30.7% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 53.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 35.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Catanzaro 48.6 / Carrarese 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Catanzaro vs Carrarese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.