Pisa vs Entella
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-11 · 21:00 CET
WLDWW
DWDDWThe score model made a Pisa win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pisa 1.81 – 0.73 Entella.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa win | 61.9% | 52.6% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.9% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Entella win | 13.5% | 19.6% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 45.5% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 25.6% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 48.1% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 30.9% | -1.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pisa 23.4 / Entella 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pisa vs Entella in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.