Sudtirol vs Catanzaro
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
DWDWD
LLLWLThe score model made a Catanzaro win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.28 – 1.36 Catanzaro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 33.5% | 39.6% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 30.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Catanzaro win | 37.4% | 30.3% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 47.0% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 27.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 52.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 31.6% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sudtirol 48.6 / Catanzaro 48.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.