Waterford vs Derry City
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-14 · 20:45 CET
DDLLW
WDWLWThe score model made a Derry City win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waterford 1.29 – 1.51 Derry City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford win | 30.8% | 34.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.5% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Derry City win | 41.0% | 38.7% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | 56.2% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 35.2% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 60.0% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 37.9% | -6.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waterford 46.9 / Derry City 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Waterford vs Derry City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.