The season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +8.4% at market prices across 175 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Derry City produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Sligo Rovers – Derry City2026-10-30 19:45Under 2.5Model 55.5%Implied 45.2%▲ +10.2%- St. Patricks – Bohemians2026-10-30 19:45Under 2.5Model 59.0%Implied 50.3%▲ +8.7%
- Drogheda – Galway2026-10-30 19:45Under 2.5Model 55.9%Implied 48.5%▲ +7.4%
- Shelbourne – Waterford2026-10-30 19:45FT U3.5Model 66.4%Implied 62.1%▲ +4.3%
- Dundalk – Shamrock Rovers2026-10-30 19:45Under 2.5Model 46.8%Implied 43.9%▲ +3.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sligo Rovers– Derry City | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 45.2% | ▲ +10.2% | 2.21 |
| 2 |  St. Patricks– Bohemians | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 50.3% | ▲ +8.7% | 1.99 |
| 3 |  Drogheda– Galway | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 48.5% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.06 |
| 4 |  Shelbourne– Waterford | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | FT U3.5 | 66.4% | 62.1% | ▲ +4.3% | 1.61 |
| 5 |  Dundalk– Shamrock Rovers | 2026-10-30 | 19:45 | Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 43.9% | ▲ +3.0% | 2.28 |
Add Premier Division fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier Division schedule 10,000 times a day. Shamrock Rovers win the 2026 title in >99% of them, projecting ~70 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Drogheda finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 68 | 70 | 68–71 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 62 | 63 | 62–65 | — | >99% | — |
| 3 | St. Patricks | 60 | 62 | 60–63 | — | >99% | — |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 49 | 51 | 49–52 | — | 78% | — |
| 5 | Derry City | 47 | 49 | 47–50 | — | 22% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Waterford | 40 | 41 | 40–43 | — | — | 85% |
| 9 | Drogheda | 37 | 38 | 37–40 | — | — | >99% |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 24 | 25 | 24–27 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 5 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/ireland/premier-division/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier Division live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/ireland/premier-division">Premier Division stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier Division match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 68 | 61.3 | +6.7 | |
| 2 | Bohemians | 62 | 61.2 | +0.8 | |
| 3 | St. Patricks | 60 | 63.6 | -3.6 | |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 49 | 52.8 | -3.8 | |
| 5 | Derry City | 47 | 51.9 | -4.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Waterford | 40 | 35.7 | +4.3 | |
| 9 | Drogheda | 37 | 37.9 | -0.9 | |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 24 | 28.9 | -4.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+