Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +13.0% at market prices across 160 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Shelbourne produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Shelbourne – Sligo Rovers2026-10-09 18:45Under 2.5Model 55.8%Implied 46.1%▲ +9.7%- Derry City – St. Patricks2026-10-09 18:45Under 2.5Model 62.2%Implied 54.1%▲ +8.2%
- Waterford – Galway2026-10-09 18:45FT U3.5Model 70.8%Implied 63.3%▲ +7.5%
- Shamrock Rovers – Drogheda2026-10-08 19:00Under 2.5Model 50.7%Implied 47.2%▲ +3.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shelbourne– Sligo Rovers | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 46.1% | ▲ +9.7% | 2.17 |
| 2 |  Derry City– St. Patricks | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 54.1% | ▲ +8.2% | 1.85 |
| 3 |  Waterford– Galway | 2026-10-09 | 18:45 | FT U3.5 | 70.8% | 63.3% | ▲ +7.5% | 1.58 |
| 4 |  Shamrock Rovers– Drogheda | 2026-10-08 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 47.2% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.12 |
Add Premier Division fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier Division schedule 10,000 times a day. Shamrock Rovers win the 2026 title in 63% of them, projecting ~68 points; St. Patricks are next at 23%. At the other end, Sligo Rovers finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 59 | 68 | 65–72 | 63% | >99% | — |
| 2 | St. Patricks | 59 | 66 | 62–69 | 23% | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Bohemians | 59 | 65 | 61–68 | 14% | >99% | — |
| 4 | Derry City | 41 | 48 | 44–51 | — | 65% | <1% |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 40 | 46 | 43–49 | — | 22% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Waterford | 34 | 39 | 36–42 | — | <1% | 82% |
| 9 | Drogheda | 34 | 39 | 35–41 | — | <1% | 89% |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 23 | 27 | 24–30 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 20 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/ireland/premier-division/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier Division live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/ireland/premier-division">Premier Division stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier Division match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Patricks | 59 | 57.8 | +1.2 | |
| 2 | Bohemians | 59 | 56.2 | +2.8 | |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 59 | 53.0 | +6.0 | |
| 4 | Derry City | 41 | 47.8 | -6.8 | |
| 5 |  Dundalk | 41 | 44.0 | -3.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Waterford | 34 | 31.1 | +2.9 | |
| 9 | Drogheda | 34 | 35.2 | -1.2 | |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 23 | 27.3 | -4.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+