Dundalk vs St. Patricks
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-14 · 20:45 CET
DLLLD
LWWWLThe score model made a St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundalk 1.13 – 1.38 St. Patricks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 29.0% | 28.2% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 25.3% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| St. Patricks win | 40.9% | 46.5% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 56.9% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 35.8% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 59.6% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 39.3% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundalk 35.8 / St. Patricks 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dundalk vs St. Patricks in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.