Shelbourne vs Derry City
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
LWDWW
DWDWLThe score model made a Shelbourne win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.31 – 1.12 Derry City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne win | 39.2% | 40.2% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Derry City win | 30.0% | 31.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 49.7% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 28.8% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 55.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 34.5% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shelbourne 49.6 / Derry City 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.