Galway vs Bohemians
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
LWLDW
WWWLWThe score model made a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galway 1.17 – 1.30 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway win | 31.5% | 21.7% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 24.0% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Bohemians win | 37.8% | 54.2% | -16.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 56.4% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 35.2% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 56.8% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 38.1% | -10.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galway 45.5 / Bohemians 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.