Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-04 · 21:00 CET
LWWWL
LWDWWThe score model made a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.56 – 0.87 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers win | 51.9% | 55.6% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 24.8% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Shelbourne win | 19.6% | 19.6% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 50.5% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 29.7% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 51.3% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 35.1% | -1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shamrock Rovers 50.2 / Shelbourne 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.