Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-09-04 · 21:00 CET
WWDWD
DWLLDThe score model makes a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.2% vs 71.2% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.56 – 0.87 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers win | 51.9% | 50.0% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.3% | +2.2% |
| Shelbourne win | 19.6% | 23.7% | -4.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 49.6% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 28.8% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 52.4% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.8% | +0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shamrock Rovers 50.3 / Shelbourne 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.