Longford vs UC Dublin
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-10-24 · 20:30 CET
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LLWDWThe score model makes a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.0% vs 59.0% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.42 – 1.47 UC Dublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 37.2% | 35.3% | +1.9% |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.0% | -2.7% |
| UC Dublin win | 39.5% | 38.7% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 61.1% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.0% | 41.0% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 64.5% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 41.3% | -6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 53.4 / UC Dublin 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Longford vs UC Dublin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.