Longford vs Treaty United
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-12 · 20:30 CET
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LWLWWThe score model made a Longford win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.52 – 1.06 Treaty United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 48.4% | 49.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Treaty United win | 27.3% | 24.8% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 50.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 30.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 52.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 35.3% | -14.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 51.5 / Treaty United 51.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Longford vs Treaty United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.