UC Dublin vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
LLWDW
WDWLLThe score model made a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UC Dublin 1.84 – 0.83 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Dublin win | 61.7% | 47.1% | +14.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 26.6% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Athlone win | 17.1% | 26.3% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 54.3% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.2% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 57.3% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 37.3% | -2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UC Dublin 47.4 / Athlone 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.