Finn Harps vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-04 · 20:45 CET
WLLLL
DWDWLThe score model made a Finn Harps win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Finn Harps 1.28 – 1.19 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps win | 39.3% | 22.4% | +16.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 24.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Athlone win | 34.6% | 52.8% | -18.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 56.2% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 35.7% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 56.6% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 37.7% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Finn Harps 50.5 / Athlone 51.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.