Bray vs Cork City
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-04 · 20:45 CET
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LWLLWThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 1.40 – 1.81 Cork City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 30.2% | 28.2% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 25.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Cork City win | 47.6% | 46.4% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 63.0% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 43.8% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 64.6% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 43.3% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 51.2 / Cork City 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.