Punjab vs Mumbai City
ISL, India · 2026-10-19 · 16:00 CET
WDWLW
DLWWLThe score model made a Mumbai City win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Punjab 1.07 – 1.28 Mumbai City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punjab win | 28.8% | 39.2% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 28.6% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Mumbai City win | 39.1% | 32.2% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 46.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 26.0% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 51.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 31.5% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Punjab 20 / Mumbai City 21.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Punjab vs Mumbai City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.