SC Delhi vs Mohun Bagan
ISL, India · 2026-10-16 · 16:00 CET
DLDLL
DDDWLThe score model makes a Mohun Bagan win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.9% vs 68.1% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SC Delhi 0.78 – 1.66 Mohun Bagan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Delhi win | 15.7% | 12.7% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 22.3% | +5.4% |
| Mohun Bagan win | 56.6% | 65.1% | -8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 52.3% | -8.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 31.9% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 46.8% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 39.0% | -1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SC Delhi 10 / Mohun Bagan 21.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.