Zalaegerszegi vs Puskas Academy
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-06 · 15:30 CET
LLWLW
WLLWWThe score model made a Puskas Academy win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi 1.18 – 1.33 Puskas Academy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zalaegerszegi win | 31.5% | 34.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 28.4% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Puskas Academy win | 38.6% | 36.9% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 55.1% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 35.1% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 59.6% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 37.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zalaegerszegi 44.1 / Puskas Academy 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.