Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +1.0% at market prices across 47 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Honved produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Ferencvaros – Debrecen2026-10-10 15:00FT U3.5Model 63.8%Implied 54.3%▲ +9.4%- Gyor – Puskas Academy2026-10-11 17:00Under 2.5Model 51.9%Implied 42.6%▲ +9.3%
- Zalaegerszegi – Nyiregyhaza2026-10-11 12:45Home winModel 45.7%Implied 37.2%▲ +8.5%
- Paks – MTK Budapest2026-10-10 17:30Home winModel 56.4%Implied 49.5%▲ +6.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ferencvaros– Debrecen | 2026-10-10 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 63.8% | 54.3% | ▲ +9.4% | 1.84 |
| 2 |  Gyor– Puskas Academy | 2026-10-11 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 42.6% | ▲ +9.3% | 2.35 |
| 3 |  Zalaegerszegi– Nyiregyhaza | 2026-10-11 | 12:45 | Home win | 45.7% | 37.2% | ▲ +8.5% | 2.69 |
| 4 |  Paks– MTK Budapest | 2026-10-10 | 17:30 | Home win | 56.4% | 49.5% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.02 |
Add OTP Bank Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining OTP Bank Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Ferencvaros win the 2026-2027 title in 54% of them, projecting ~63 points; Gyor are next at 32%. At the other end, Nyiregyhaza finish in the bottom three in 64% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Ferencvaros's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferencvaros | 12 | 63 | 55–71 | ▼54% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Gyor | 15 | 61 | 53–69 | 32% | 95% | <1% |
| 3 | Vasas | 14 | 55 | 46–63 | 9% | 78% | <1% |
| 4 | Puskas Academy | 15 | 52 | 44–60 | 4% | 63% | <1% |
| 5 | Paks | 11 | 48 | 40–56 | 1% | 36% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Honved | 6 | 36 | 28–44 | <1% | 2% | 50% |
| 11 |  Kisvarda | 9 | 35 | 27–42 | — | <1% | 61% |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 34 | 27–42 | — | <1% | 64% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 151 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every OTP Bank Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyor | 15 | 11.6 | +3.4 | |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | |
| 3 | Vasas | 14 | 10.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 |  Ujpest | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 | |
| 5 | Ferencvaros | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 | |
| 11 | Honved | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 | |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+