Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +5.8% at market prices across 65 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Nyiregyhaza produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Gyor – Vasas2026-10-31 18:45Under 1.5 HTModel 75.1%Implied 59.2%▲ +15.9%- Ferencvaros – Paks2026-11-01 15:00FT U3.5Model 58.4%Implied 49.5%▲ +8.9%
- Puskas Academy – Debrecen2026-11-01 12:30Under 2.5Model 49.0%Implied 43.3%▲ +5.7%
- Honved – Kisvarda2026-10-31 14:45Under 1.5 HTModel 75.4%Implied 69.9%▲ +5.5%
- Ujpest – Nyiregyhaza2026-11-01 17:15Under 1.5 HTModel 62.5%Implied 64.1%-1.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gyor– Vasas | 2026-10-31 | 18:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.1% | 59.2% | ▲ +15.9% | 1.69 |
| 2 |  Ferencvaros– Paks | 2026-11-01 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 58.4% | 49.5% | ▲ +8.9% | 2.02 |
| 3 |  Puskas Academy– Debrecen | 2026-11-01 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 43.3% | ▲ +5.7% | 2.31 |
| 4 |  Honved– Kisvarda | 2026-10-31 | 14:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.4% | 69.9% | ▲ +5.5% | 1.43 |
| 5 |  Ujpest– Nyiregyhaza | 2026-11-01 | 17:15 | Under 1.5 HT | 62.5% | 64.1% | -1.6% | 1.56 |
Add OTP Bank Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining OTP Bank Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Ferencvaros win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~63 points; Gyor are next at 35%. At the other end, Nyiregyhaza finish in the bottom three in 71% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Ferencvaros's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferencvaros | 17 | 63 | 55–70 | ▼53% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Gyor | 21 | 61 | 53–68 | 35% | 97% | <1% |
| 3 | Puskas Academy | 21 | 55 | 47–62 | 7% | 77% | <1% |
| 4 | Paks | 17 | 52 | 44–59 | 3% | 61% | <1% |
| 5 | Debrecen | 16 | 48 | 40–55 | <1% | 33% | 3% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Kisvarda | 12 | 36 | 29–44 | — | 1% | 49% |
| 11 | Honved | 10 | 35 | 27–42 | — | <1% | 62% |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 11 | 34 | 26–41 | — | <1% | 71% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 133 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every OTP Bank Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyor | 21 | 15.5 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 21 | 15.1 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | Ferencvaros | 17 | 20.1 | -3.1 | |
| 4 | Paks | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 | |
| 5 | Debrecen | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 11 | 14.6 | -3.6 | |
| 11 | Honved | 10 | 12.8 | -2.8 | |
| 12 |  Zalaegerszegi | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+