OTP Bank Liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Hungary · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Ferencvaros (42%), Gyor (36%), Puskas Academy (16%). 65 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvaros | 9 | 14 | 6153–68 | 42% | 51 from 24 (2.13/game) |
| Gyor | 10 | 18 | 6052–68 | 36% | 47 from 23 (2.04/game) |
| Puskas Academy | 10 | 21 | 5749–65 | 16% | 44 from 23 (1.91/game) |
| Vasas | 10 | 15 | 4942–57 | 3% | 50 from 23 (2.17/game) |
| Paks | 10 | 14 | 4941–57 | 2% | 51 from 23 (2.22/game) |
Below 1%: Debrecen, Ujpest, MTK Budapest, Honved, Zalaegerszegi, Kisvarda, Nyiregyhaza.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 139 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).