MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-05 · 17:30 CET
WDLLL
DDWLDThe score model made an MTK Budapest win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.80 – 1.21 Kisvarda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 50.1% | 51.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.8% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Kisvarda win | 24.3% | 24.1% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 59.5% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 38.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 60.7% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 40.3% | +5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: MTK Budapest 41.9 / Kisvarda 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.