PAOK vs Aris
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
LWWLW
LLDWWThe score model made a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK 2.02 – 0.74 Aris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK win | 65.7% | 58.6% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Aris win | 11.3% | 17.6% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 47.9% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 27.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 47.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 32.8% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK 36.7 / Aris 36.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open PAOK vs Aris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.