PAOK vs Aris
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
DDWWL
WWWWLThe score model makes a PAOK win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 71.2% vs 62.8% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK 2.02 – 0.74 Aris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK win | 65.8% | 64.8% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 20.9% | +2.3% |
| Aris win | 10.9% | 14.2% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 55.1% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 34.2% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 49.3% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 37.3% | -8.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK 37.2 / Aris 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.