The season in numbers
Even the best blind strategy (under 2.5 goals) lost this season. The bookmaker margin is undefeated.
Asteras Tripolis produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Kifisia – Levadiakos2026-09-13 18:00Over 2.5 ✓58.3%vs 47.6%▲ +10.7%- Olympiacos Piraeus – OFI Crete2026-09-12 16:00FT U3.5 ✓70.4%vs 62.5%▲ +7.9%
- Panathinaikos – Panetolikos2026-09-13 18:30Under 2.5 ✓56.5%vs 49.8%▲ +6.8%
- PAOK – Aris2026-09-13 18:00Under 1.5 HT ✓71.1%vs 68.0%▲ +3.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kifisia– Levadiakos | 2026-09-13 | 18:00 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 58.3% | 47.6% | ▲ +10.7% | 2.10 | |
| 2 |  Olympiacos Piraeus– OFI Crete | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 70.4% | 62.5% | ▲ +7.9% | 1.60 | |
| 3 |  Panathinaikos– Panetolikos | 2026-09-13 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.5% | 49.8% | ▲ +6.8% | 2.01 | |
| 4 |  PAOK– Aris | 2026-09-13 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 71.1% | 68.0% | ▲ +3.0% | 1.47 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. AEK Athens win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~57 points; PAOK are next at 19%. At the other end, Volos finish in the bottom three in 70% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Panathinaikos's title chance up 2 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens | 7 | 57 | 51–64 | 53% | >99% | — |
| 2 | PAOK | 6 | 53 | 46–60 | 19% | 98% | — |
| 3 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 7 | 53 | 46–60 | 19% | 98% | — |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 50 | 43–58 | ▲9% | 93% | — |
| 5 | Aris | 6 | 37 | 29–44 | <1% | 6% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 |  Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 23 | 16–30 | — | <1% | 58% |
| 13 | Kalamata | 1 | 23 | 16–29 | — | — | 65% |
| 14 |  Volos | 2 | 22 | 15–28 | — | — | 70% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 161 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Super League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | Panetolikos | 9 | 3.9 | +5.1 | |
| 3 | AEK Athens | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | |
| 4 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | |
| 5 | PAOK | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | Kifisia | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | |
| 14 | Levadiakos | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+