Olympiacos Piraeus vs OFI Crete
Super League, Greece · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
WDWWD
LWWLWThe score model makes an Olympiacos Piraeus win the most likely outcome at 74%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.1% vs 58.3% implied (+11.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Olympiacos Piraeus 2.20 – 0.56 OFI Crete.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus win | 73.8% | 79.9% | -6.1% |
| Draw | 19.6% | 13.7% | +6.0% |
| OFI Crete win | 6.6% | 6.5% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 63.5% | -11.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 41.7% | -11.8% |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 42.5% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 42.8% | -7.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Olympiacos Piraeus 37.3 / OFI Crete 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.