Panionios vs Asteras Tripolis B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
DLLLW
WDLDLThe score model made a Panionios win the most likely outcome at 68%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panionios 1.80 – 0.56 Asteras Tripolis B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panionios win | 67.6% | 68.0% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 22.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Asteras Tripolis B win | 11.2% | 9.7% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 46.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 27.1% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.6% | 37.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 31.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Panionios 19.8 / Asteras Tripolis B 19.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.