Lubeck vs St. Pauli II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-17 · 14:00 CET
DWDLD
WWLLLThe score model makes a Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.4% vs 55.1% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lubeck 1.82 – 1.24 St. Pauli II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lubeck win | 50.4% | 43.9% | +6.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 22.7% | +1.4% |
| St. Pauli II win | 25.5% | 33.3% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 66.7% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 44.9% | -8.3% |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 67.2% | -7.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 51.4% | -3.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lubeck 32.4 / St. Pauli II 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.