The season in numbers
Blindly backing under 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Jeddeloh produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30' on average.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Regionalliga North schedule 10,000 times a day. VfB Oldenburg win the 2026-2027 title in 43% of them, projecting ~63 points; Hannover II are next at 28%. At the other end, VfB Lubeck finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Phonix Lubeck's title chance up 3 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  VfB Oldenburg | 6 | 63 | 53–71 | 43% | 90% | — |
| 2 |  Hannover II | 6 | 60 | 51–69 | 28% | 82% | — |
| 3 |  Drochtersen/Assel | 3 | 57 | 48–66 | 14% | 69% | — |
| 4 |  Phonix Lubeck | 3 | 54 | 45–63 | ▲8% | 56% | <1% |
| 5 |  Emden | 4 | 50 | 40–59 | 2% | 27% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 17 |  Hannoverscher SC | 1 | 29 | 20–37 | — | <1% | 40% |
| 18 | VfB Lubeck | 1 | 1 | 1–1 | — | — | >99% |
| 19 | Eimsbutteler | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 256 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/germany/regionalliga-north/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Regionalliga North live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/germany/regionalliga-north">Regionalliga North stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Regionalliga North match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Weiche-08 | 20 | 9.1 | +10.9 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 |  Schoningen | 17 | 5.8 | +11.2 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | VfB Oldenburg | 16 | 11.8 | +4.2 | |
| 4 | Phonix Lubeck | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | |
| 5 | Hannover II | 14 | 6.5 | +7.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 17 |  Jeddeloh | 4 | 8.7 | -4.7 | |
| 18 | VfB Lubeck | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | |
| 19 |  Lubeck | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisSchoningen17 ptsVfB Oldenburg16 ptsPhonix Lubeck14 ptsHannover II14 ptsDrochtersen/Assel12 ptsDelmenhorst11 pts
Norderstedt9 ptsEmden9 ptsEimsbutteler9 ptsTodesfelde8 ptsHannoverscher SC8 pts
Hamburger SV II7 pts
Werder Bremen II5 pts
Bremer5 pts
St. Pauli II4 ptsJeddeloh4 ptsVfB Lubeck3 ptsLubeck1 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+