Regionalliga North 2024-2025 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	TSV Havelse	33	71	57.2	+13.8Outperforming ++	2	+11.3	+2.5	1:2 vs Emden (+1.8)	2:3 vs Lohne (-2.0)
2	Drochtersen/Assel	33	60	53.2	+6.8Outperforming ++	4	+8.5	-1.6	0:1 vs Emden (+1.9)	0:1 vs Jeddeloh (-2.1)
3	Werder Bremen II	33	57	51.1	+5.9Outperforming ++	5	+2.0	+3.9	4:1 vs Meppen (+1.9)	2:3 vs Teutonia Ottensen (-2.1)
4	Phonix Lubeck	33	55	49.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	7	+5.2	+0.2	0:3 vs Meppen (+1.9)	0:1 vs Norderstedt (-1.9)
5	Hamburger SV II	33	49	44.3	+4.7Outperforming	9	+8.1	-3.3	1:3 vs Emden (+2.0)	2:3 vs Lubeck (-1.6)
6	Lubeck	33	53	49.1	+3.9Outperforming	8	-4.1	+8.0	2:3 vs Hamburger SV II (+1.8)	1:4 vs Teutonia Ottensen (-2.0)
7	Emden	33	57	54.4	+2.6Outperforming	3	-4.6	+7.2	0:3 vs VfB Oldenburg (+1.9)	0:1 vs St. Pauli II (-2.0)
8	St. Pauli II	33	42	40.0	+2.0On expectation	13	+4.0	-2.0	0:1 vs Emden (+2.2)	1:0 vs Jeddeloh (-1.4)
9	08-Holstein Kiel II	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	32	0.0	+1.9	2:4 vs SC Weiche (+1.9)	2:4 vs SC Weiche (1.9)
10	08-TSV Havelse	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	30	0.0	+1.8	1:2 vs SC Weiche (+1.8)	1:2 vs SC Weiche (1.8)
11	08-Lohne	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	28	0.0	+1.8	0:3 vs SC Weiche (+1.8)	0:3 vs SC Weiche (1.8)
12	08-St. Pauli II	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	27	0.0	+1.7	0:1 vs SC Weiche (+1.7)	0:1 vs SC Weiche (1.7)
13	08-Emden	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	25	0.0	+1.7	1:3 vs SC Weiche (+1.7)	1:3 vs SC Weiche (1.7)
14	Norderstedt	33	42	40.4	+1.6On expectation	12	+0.3	+1.4	0:1 vs Phonix Lubeck (+2.1)	0:4 vs Bremer (-1.7)
15	08-Meppen	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	23	0.0	+1.5	1:4 vs SC Weiche (+1.5)	1:4 vs SC Weiche (1.5)
16	Lohne	33	44	43.3	+0.7On expectation	10	-5.5	+6.3	2:3 vs TSV Havelse (+2.2)	0:3 vs Todesfelde (-2.0)
17	08-Norderstedt	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	34	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs SC Weiche (+0.1)	1:1 vs SC Weiche (0.1)
18	08-Phonix Lubeck	1	1	1.4	-0.5On expectation	24	0.0	-0.5	0:0 vs SC Weiche (+-0.4)	0:0 vs SC Weiche (-0.4)
19	Bremer	33	37	37.5	-0.5On expectation	15	-1.8	+1.2	1:4 vs Lubeck (+2.2)	2:3 vs Jeddeloh (-1.5)
20	08-Lubeck	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	22	0.0	-0.5	1:1 vs SC Weiche (+-0.5)	1:1 vs SC Weiche (-0.5)
21	08-Werder Bremen II	1	1	1.6	-0.6On expectation	20	0.0	-0.6	3:3 vs SC Weiche (+-0.6)	3:3 vs SC Weiche (-0.6)
22	08-Todesfelde	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	36	0.0	-0.7	5:0 vs SC Weiche (+-0.7)	5:0 vs SC Weiche (-0.7)
23	SC Weiche	17	25	25.8	-0.8On expectation	18	-0.8	0.0	1:0 vs 08-Drochtersen/Assel (+1.8)	2:4 vs 08-Holstein Kiel II (-1.7)
24	08-Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	35	0.0	-0.8	3:0 vs SC Weiche (+-0.8)	3:0 vs SC Weiche (-0.8)
25	Jeddeloh	33	38	38.9	-0.9On expectation	14	-3.9	+3.0	0:1 vs Drochtersen/Assel (+2.3)	1:2 vs Bremer (-1.6)
26	Teutonia Ottensen	33	33	33.9	-0.9On expectation	16	-1.4	+0.4	2:3 vs Werder Bremen II (+2.3)	0:1 vs Todesfelde (-1.6)
27	08-Jeddeloh	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	33	0.0	-1.0	4:1 vs SC Weiche (+-1.0)	4:1 vs SC Weiche (-1.0)
28	08-VfB Oldenburg	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	31	0.0	-1.1	2:0 vs SC Weiche (+-1.1)	2:0 vs SC Weiche (-1.1)
29	08-Hamburger SV II	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	29	0.0	-1.2	1:0 vs SC Weiche (+-1.2)	1:0 vs SC Weiche (-1.2)
30	08-Bremer	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	26	0.0	-1.3	3:2 vs SC Weiche (+-1.3)	3:2 vs SC Weiche (-1.3)
31	08-Drochtersen/Assel	1	0	1.6	-1.6On expectation	21	0.0	-1.6	1:0 vs SC Weiche (+-1.6)	1:0 vs SC Weiche (-1.6)
32	Todesfelde	33	28	30.1	-2.1Underperforming	17	-6.1	+4.0	1:0 vs Drochtersen/Assel (+2.3)	2:4 vs St. Pauli II (-1.5)
33	SC Weiche-08	17	16	22.1	-6.0Underperforming −−	19	0.0	-6.0	1:2 vs Lubeck (+1.8)	1:0 vs Teutonia Ottensen (-1.7)
34	Meppen	33	51	57.5	-6.5Underperforming −−	1	-0.4	-6.1	0:2 vs Lohne (+1.4)	0:1 vs Jeddeloh (-1.9)
35	VfB Oldenburg	33	43	50.8	-7.8Underperforming −−	6	-8.6	+0.9	0:2 vs Meppen (+2.0)	0:1 vs Jeddeloh (-1.9)
36	Holstein Kiel II	33	25	42.7	-17.7Underperforming −−	11	-13.3	-4.4	1:3 vs Emden (+2.2)	1:3 vs Todesfelde (-2.0)